Tag Archive for: Cash Flow

Where Does This End?

We are currently facing some real financial challenges in our country and, more specifically, in the dairy industry… It seems as if many economic events are completely out of control.

Inflation has been raging at the highest levels since the early 1980’s, and many suppliers are using this as an excuse to raise prices dramatically, an action they have been unable to do for many years. As a result, it costs $500 just for someone to show up and evaluate what the problem is with your piece of equipment, let alone provide you with a solution.

Will these costs ever go down? This is not likely, as evidenced by the last bout of inflation in the early 1980’s. All of this calamity has been compounded by the Federal Reserve Board raising interest rates extensively the past 24 months, in an effort to reduce the inflationary impact. Since they were relatively “late to the game,” their impact has been one of potential over-correction and has hurt all borrowers. This includes many businesses.

What can you do? If you are running a dairy operation today, you must prepare a Budget and monitor it relentlessly. If you aren’t doing this regularly, you could fall behind.

What if I prepared this budget for you? Would that help? Our Success Strategies Advantage™ software is designed to take the pain out of this process. I would encourage you to look at it at www.success-strategies.com. When you get to the website, just look for the milk can. The program will be right there for you to explore. What can it do for you?

You can run various “What If” scenarios within it in order to figure out what various repayment schemes will work for you (15-, 20- or 25-year amortization periods). For each scenario, it also will provide you with the following items:

  • A Year-to-Date (YTD) Cash Flow Comparison of your operation compared to a budget that is based upon typical numbers for your region of the country.
  • It will show you where you may be over or under budget.
  • It will provide you with Break-Even Levels for Milk Price/cwt, Feed Expense & Production per cow per day, all useful information for reaching higher levels of profitability, as well as setting your price level coverage through the Dairy Revenue Protection (DRP) and Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) programs.

It will equip you to better understand where you might be over budget and help you to talk with your Team (e.g., Nutritionist, Veterinarian, Financial Consultant & Others) about how to refine your numbers. Check it out at www.success-strategies.com.

And wait. I believe the Milk Futures were up again today. There’s hope!

Let’s take your business to the Next Level!

Who Benefits from Delays?

It has been interesting to observe recent delays on loan approvals with several of my Clients. Frustrating, yet interesting, since the delays seem to occur for no real good reason.

I understand that all parties, particularly the bank, need to have sufficient, current information to make a good loan decision, but once they have it, why does the approval process take 3-4 weeks? No one’s analysis should take that much time…

Does the borrower benefit from this extended approval process? Not likely, especially when they have vendors who are dealing with uncertainty. This uncertainty will probably not lead to any cost savings. Similarly, it can jeopardize a borrower’s operation by generating doubt about their future.

What if interest rates go up in the interim period, as they have been for the last 18 months? It ends up costing the borrower even more.

At the same time, does the bank benefit if the rates increase? Probably not, because their “cost of funds” will also increase, leaving them with a similar margin. Additionally, whenever a borrower’s operation is negatively impacted, the risk level also increases for the lender.

Finally, if vendors decide to charge higher prices for their products, as we have seen with inflation’s impact these past two years, an operator can be hurt even more on the margin front. The air of uncertainty that is created is never beneficial for anyone. As Winston Churchill stated, “The ultimate sum of the maybe’s is always no.”

So, what are we waiting for? Let’s move forward and make a reasonably sound decision, if you have the information you need, whether it’s a Yes or a No.  Loan decisions are not like fine wines. They don’t get better with age. Instead, let’s follow the sage advice of Churchill who also said, “Let our advance worrying become advance thinking and planning.” Let’s move forward, for we have no time to waste.

To assist you with your own financial analysis, I have recently introduced a system to allow you to measure your dairy operation’s cash flow results. I call it the Success Strategies AdvantageTM.  It is designed to create a budget for your dairy operation, using numbers for your region of the country. After you input about two dozen “Actual” numbers from your QuickBooks or other accounting system, it will provide you with the following items:

  • A Year-to-Date (YTD) Cash Flow Comparison of your operation compared to a budget that is based upon typical numbers for your region of the country.
  • It will show you where you may be over or under budget.
  • It will provide you with Break-Even Levels for Milk Price/cwt, Feed Expense & Production per cow per day, all useful information for reaching higher levels of profitability, as well as setting your price level coverage through the Dairy Revenue Protection (DRP) and Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) programs.
  • It will also equip you to better understand where you might be over budget and help you to talk with your Team (e.g., Nutritionist, Veterinarian, Financial Consultant & Others) about how to refine your numbers.

Finally, it will give you solid information to share with your banker, showing how you are currently doing and guiding you about future changes or investments that will help you streamline operations.

Let’s take your business to the Next Level!

Where Do You Get Your Confidence?

I thought it was a stupid question. However, it did come directly from a finance professional who was a serious worrier, and with him, “the sky was always falling.”

My response was that my confidence came from completing 150-200 Cash Flow Analyses per year for the last 20+ years. In other words, this “wasn’t my first rodeo.” One item that added to my confidence was this Client’s long-term history and their solid Cash Flow performance.

If you complete this type of analysis regularly, it will undoubtedly build your confidence. Whether your Cash Flow results look positive or negative, you will gain a much better grasp of your numbers. The largest benefit of this entire process is that if you measure the Cash Flow of your operation, you will understand it better. If you understand it, you can start to gain control over your Revenue & Expenses. If you can control these items better, guess what? You can improve them, and that is the ultimate benefit of completing this process.

Ray Kroc of the McDonald’s Corporation said, “I didn’t invent the hamburger. I just took it more seriously than anyone else.” Similarly, I didn’t invent the process of Cash Flow Analysis, but I have definitely taken it more seriously than most people! In fact, now I’ve created a system for you to complete your own Cash Flow Analysis. I call it the Success Strategies AdvantageTM . With the input of about 20 numbers related to your loans and feed inventory, it will create a budget, using numbers for your region of the country. Then, after you input about two dozen “Actual” numbers from your QuickBooks or other accounting system, it will provide you with the following items:

  • A Year-to-Date (YTD) Cash Flow Comparison of your operation compared to a budget that is based upon typical numbers for your region of the country.
  • It will show you where you may be over or under budget.
  • It will provide you with Break-Even Levels for Milk Price/cwt, Feed Expense & Production per cow per day, all useful information for reaching higher levels of profitability, as well as setting your price level coverage through the Dairy Revenue Protection (DRP) and Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) programs.
  • It will also equip you to better understand where you might be over budget and help you to talk with your Team (e.g., Nutritionist, Veterinarian, Financial Consultant & Others) about how to refine your numbers
  • Finally, it will give you solid information to share with your banker, showing how you are currently doing and guiding you about future changes or investments that will help you streamline operations.

I recommend you look at it by visiting www.success-strategies.com to see if it will assist you to be more profitable.

Are You Taking This Seriously?

In my last blog, I suggested that one of the key steps to achieving successful results in your operation is measuring your Net Cash Flow each and every month. I am such a firm believer in this process and its numerous benefits, that I complete it monthly for every Client.

Why am I such a huge believer in the benefits of this process? Yes, it provides us with a clear indication of whether you are making money or not, but it also has other benefits. It will help you steer clear of any financial “surprises” such as getting to the end of a quarter, or worse yet, the end of a financial year, only to be shocked by how much a particular expense item went up. Rather than being forced to explain this to your banker, wouldn’t it be better to catch this sooner and correct it before it becomes an issue? I see this as one of the largest benefits of regular Cash Flow Analysis.

If you think about it, this type of financial hurdle will also be easier to correct if we catch it early. If some expense is out of line six months into the year, it can present a real challenge to get it back into alignment before year end.

In the Cash Flow Analysis that I provide my Clients, there are other items that can prove to be beneficial. The Variance from Budget can clearly be good information to have at hand, i.e., how large of a problem is this variance.

I also feel it is helpful to know what your Break-even levels are for milk pounds per cow per day, feed costs and milk price. Essentially, these tell you how much improvement you need to make to get back on track financially. This information can be essential to your overall game plan and success.

I often see this demonstrated when producers go from 70-72 pounds per cow per day to levels above 80 pounds. Sometimes they worry that their feed cost per cow per day may go up fifty cents, say 6%. However, at any given milk price, your revenue should increase by 11% (80/72 e.g.), representing a healthy marginal improvement.

Additionally, as you make more hundredweights of milk, you will also notice another benefit. The Cost/cwt for every one of your Fixed Costs will also improve. This can provide you with a considerable improvement to your Net Margin, and that, my friends, is the name of the game, when it comes to Cash Flow Analysis.

If you would like to learn more about Cash Flow Analysis and take full advantage of this process, just shoot me an email stating “NLT Workshops,” and I will be sure to include you in future invitations.

Let’s take your business to the Next Level!